All's quiet on the Southern Front thus far, although the trepidation factor is well above normal. Galveston, about 20 miles due south, has been getting rain, and while not much has happened here in Seabrook, it's just a matter of time. High tide for the Clear Lake area is around 11 this morning, with tides 3-4 feet above normal. This means that there will be flooding along Todville Road and the Kemah Boardwalk. All of this sounds worse than it actually appears outside. There is a bit more wind than usual, but nothing that would indicate the approach of what is now Tropical Storm Fay (geez, NOAA has some crummy names to choose from...).
So we wait, and we wonder. I feel silly worrying, because there is nothing happening here at the moment. Watching the news gives me a much different picture, though. It's raining in Galveston and TS Fay is currently only 129 mile SE of Galveston.
A slow-moving Gulf of Mexico depression reminiscent of deadly Tropical Storm Allison became Tropical Storm Fay Thursday night and was predicted to make landfall in Galveston Saturday morning, drenching the area with as much as 10 inches of rain.
The National Weather Service issued tropical storm warnings Thursday evening for a 250-mile swath of coastline from Matagorda to Intracoastal City, La.
Galveston, Chambers and Brazoria counties and east Harris County were predicted to be on the storm's eastern edge, and thus expected to bear the brunt of its force, including 5-10 inches of rain and top sustained winds of 60 mph.
"We're hoping Allison is a once-in-a-lifetime phenomenon," Charles Roeseler, a meteorologist at the NWS station in League City, said about the June 2001 storm that wreaked havoc on Houston with 36 inches of rain, killing 22 people and causing $5 billion in damage.
"This storm shows some similar tendencies with Allison," Roeseler said. "It's a slowly moving system with high pressure to the north blocking movement. Any slow-moving tropical system has the potential to produce heavy rain."
The storm is predicted to hit Galveston Island about 7 a.m. Saturday, but Roeseler said the "situation is extremely changeable" because of the disturbance's erratic movement. The storm would quickly weaken after landfall, he said, but he could not predict its speed or how long it would dump rain.
Tides are expected to run 4 to 6 feet, about 4 feet above normal. Roeseler said this would likely lead to flooding in parts of Bolivar Peninsula and western Galveston Island, and even areas on Galveston Bay and Clear Creek might expect flooding.
Roeseler said the weather service has been closely monitoring an area of disturbed weather over the gulf for the last several days. Barometric pressure began to dip Thursday afternoon, indicating circulation was forming.
So we sit. And we wait. And we try to go about our lives as we normally would, except that there is nothing normal about today.
