Can Dean Win, And Do Democrats Even Care?
It's a bit early to begin making predictions. After all, in January, 1992, could anyone reasonably have predicted that, a scant 10 months later Gov. Bill Clinton would be elected President? Let's not get ahead of ourselves here.
For months, Howard Dean's Democratic primary opponents have made electability their main argument against him. The former Vermont governor, they said, simply could not beat President Bush in the general election.
In fact, a CNN/Gallup/USA Today poll out this week shows Bush leading Dean, 59 percent to 37 percent....
In his Roll Call column this week, elections analyst Stuart Rothenberg examines the electability argument, suggesting that it's overrated and overused as a campaign strategy -- particularly after a party has only been out of the White House for four years.
"There is only one small problem with the electability argument: It never works," Rothenberg writes. "Or, more specifically, it hasn't worked in the first election after a party loses the White House since the nomination has been decided in primaries and caucuses, not in mythical smoke-filled rooms … And here is another bulletin: There is scant evidence that voters are paying any more attention to electability this cycle than they have in the past."
Indeed. There is no telling at this point in time which Democrat is electable. Yes, there are a few who are clearly UNelectable- Carol Moseley Braun, Al Sharpton, and Dennis Kucinich come to mind. A lot of things can happen between now and Super Tuesday- Howard Dean could be caught in flagrante delicto with a 12-year transvestite hooker, f'rinstance. OK, so THAT probably won't happen, but every election season brings it own surprises. It should be interesting to find out what the fates have in store for Democrats this time around.
In the meantime, let's not start writing people off until they prove that their campaign is dead and bloated. After Iowa and New Hampshire, we should begin seeing some Presidential aspirations floating belly up. Stay tuned, y'all....