If the election were held today, there’s a good chance George W. Bush would not be reelected. And if he doesn’t change the course of his campaign or dramatic news events don’t change the race, he’s not going to be reelected in November. Certainly the polls still show a close race. Most say Kerry has the lead, a few give it to Bush, but all put it within the margin of error. And Kerry gained only a small bump in the national polls from his convention. But that’s because conventions usually rally the party faithful around their nominee, and Bush, with some help from Howard Dean, united the Democrats months ago. The President really means it when he says he’s a uniter.