‘It never floods here’ and other memories
- a plea for help from Galveston, 9.11.00 (that’s 1900, y’all….)
Given the way that hurricanes are spawned and the direction they generally travel, Texas is much less likely to suffer a direct hit than an exposed peninsula like Florida. Nonetheless, we are hardly out of the line of fire. In the seven years that I’ve lived on the Texas Gulf Coast, we’ve been through at least one hurricane and three tropical storms. That’s just what I can remember off the top of my head- and Ivan just may change his mind and mosey our way.
Florida has learned about hurricane preparation the hard way. The Texas Gulf Coast can hardly say the same thing, and there are those who worry about the potential consequences. William King, the Mayor of Kemah, which is just on the other side of Clear Creek from Seabrook, is one of those concerned about how this area may be impacted by a catastrophic storm. Let’s just say it wouldn’t be pretty.
Since Sept. 11, 2001, we have been obsessed with preventing another terror attack. Billions have been spent on homeland security, and we subject ourselves to incredible inconvenience in the name of thwarting terrorism.
But the terror that is more likely to be visited on the Houston area is a Category 4 or 5 hurricane. And the damage it will do will dwarf anything al-Qaida can pull off. However, notwithstanding the virtually meteorological certainty that the big one is going to show up someday, we are spend ing an infinitesimal fraction on hurricane preparedness of compared with what we are spending on homeland security.
First, you need to understand the dimensions of the future calamity. The Texas Division of Emergency Management, or DEM, produces a storm surge maps that show how far hurricanes of various strengths will push water onto the mainland. According to these projections, a Category 4-5 storm will flood virtually all of Galveston County, all of Clear Lake, the East Side to Loop 610, all of Baytown south of I-10 and about half of Brazoria County. The surge will be 20-25 feet high. That means every house in Clear Lake will have water over its roof or up to the second story. The only structures that will be visible in Kemah will be the Boardwalk Tower ride and the roofs of the three-story restaurants. Riding out a Category 4-5 storm within the flood surge area is simply not a survivable option.
And that does not count the flooding that will occur upstream from the torrential rains. Tropical Storm Claudette dropped 40 inches of rain on Alvin in 1979 in 24 hours, creating a nightmare. When a 25-foot storm surge dams up that water downstream, the flood stages upstream become almost too fantastic to believe. Some predict that I-45 will be under 20 feet of water at the Clear Creek bridge.
A doomsday scenario such as this, while unlikely, is hardly out of the realm of possibility. It could happen- maybe not this year, maybe not next year, maybe not even in the next 20 years, but it COULD happen. At some point, it WILL happen.
Of course, one could argue that there is no way to reasonably prepare for a catastrophic event such as this. That may well be true, but it is also no excuse for failing to do what CAN reasonably be done.
There are older houses along the coast, like our own, that are old enough they cannot reasonably be retrofitted to current hurricance-resistance codes. A catastrophic hurricance would quite likely wipe our little piece of Paradise right off the map- literally.
Priority should be given in highway design and construction to maximize hurricane evacuation routes. SH146 is a prime example. It is virtually worthless as an evacuation route. However, the Texas Department of Transportation has had a plan to expand the highway for some time….
The DEM, local governments and the media should do a hurricane-education blitzkrieg at the beginning of each hurricane season. We basically have two generations that have grown up in this area without a major storm. The community memory of the devastation has faded….
The current structure of each county and city calling its own evacuation is unworkable and should be scrapped. Instead, the state should divide the coastline into hurricane evacuation corridors and establish a regional evacuation task force for each corridor. These task forces should be charged with the responsibility and given the authority to develop a comprehensive plan for the evacuation of all citizens in harm’s way, especially those who will be unable to evacuate themselves.
Once the evacuation plans are put in place, the personnel responsible for executing them should test and train on those plans with annual simulated evacuations. These simulations would make it more likely that the plans would be effective and would be another tool to raise the public awareness of the danger involved.
Texas law should be changed to authorize mandatory evacuations. Florida already does so. When I was in Florida recently, the hotel management came by and informed me that the area would probably be evacuated the next day and that I would be required to leave. Allowing individuals to stay when there is a clear and present danger is not only dangerous for those individuals, but also the emergency personnel that may be put in the position of attempting rescues.
Yes, a comprehensive plan is going to cost money. But so does fighting terrorism, and we seem to have no problem finding funding for that fight. Notwithstanding the horror and tragedy of the attack on the World Trade Center, it will pale in comparison to a major storm hitting our area if we are unprepared.
The challenge we face is whether we can prepare proactively for a storm of a magnitude we (hopefully) may never see, or to react to a catastrophic storm once it is upon us. Having done my time in Florida this summer, I can tell you that the time to test your hurricane preparedness is NOT when a storm is breathing down your neck.
No, we may not be the target that Florida is, but we have been hit before, and it could well happen again. The question is whether or not we will be prepared to cope. If current conditions are any indication, the answer now is a resounding NO.
