There also are questions about whether Hamas - popular for its social welfare work, running towns where it has won local elections but lacking experience in national administration - will have the competence and resources to deliver government services, especially when it is shunned by the Israelis, Americans and Europeans, who call it a terrorist organization.
To say that no one really knows what to expect from a Hamas-run Palestine would be something of an understatement. Given that Hamas is currently refusing to disarm, it would appear that what Palestinians may have achieved for themselves is something resembling a military government. No wonder Israel is so nervous. Would you want to live next to a heavily-armed and radicalized neighbor sworn to devote their life to your destruction? That would make for a helluva block party, eh?
Sure, they can blow things up, but can they actually run a democratically-elected government? That’s the question those of us who have studied the Middle East want an answer to. Hamas, part social-welfare organization, and part radical Islamofascist Murder, Inc., has no experience in government. They have shown a phenomenal talent for violent, destructive opposition, and an intolerance for voices of moderation, which leads me to think that the Hamas hierarchy has a very steep learning curve in front of it.
The one thing that will truly complicate political life for Hamas, and for Palestinians in general, is if Western governments carry through on their threat to withhold foreign aid from a Hamas-led Palestinian Authority. Given the violent, terroristic history of Hamas, how can any Western government justify funnelling money to a government run by a group sworn to wipe Israel off the face of the earth?
JERUSALEM - Unexpectedly swept into power by an overwhelming victory in Palestinian parliamentary elections, the militant Islamic group Hamas, long an armed opposition known for its suicide bombings and charitable work, is now facing the challenge of governing the Palestinian territories.
Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas said Friday that Hamas would form a new government after winning 76 seats in the 132-member legislature and crushing his Fatah party….
A looming question is whether the responsibilities of government will modify Hamas’ stance toward Israel, and toward the United States and Europe, from whom the Palestinian Authority receives crucial financial support…..
Ziad Abu Amr, a Palestinian legislator who has negotiated for the Palestinian Authority with Hamas, said the burdens of government would push the group to become more pragmatic.
“The imperatives of being in government are different than the imperatives of a resistance group opposed to the government,” Abu Amr said. “They will be required to accommodate.”
This is not to say that Hamas cannot change it’s stripes, but to think that this will happen defies conventional wisdom to an almost unimaginable degree.Thus far, the leadership has refused any suggestion that Hamas disarm, which means that those Palestinians who currently live in grinding poverty certainly are not going to be able to look forward to things becoming any better any time soon. If they think things were bad under Fatah, they haven’t seen anything yet. At least Fatah could count on a healthy infusion of foreign aid from Western governments. Hamas will have no such advantage to work with.
Certain to complicate matters even further is the reality of how much Palestinians are dependent upon the goodwill of Israel for so much of their day to day existence. This does not bode well for Palestine’s future.
The Palestinian Authority is dependent on Israel for many day-to-day services in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, such as water, electricity and movement of people and goods, and Hamas officials will probably have to deal with the Israelis on such technical matters.
Israeli officials have yet do decide whether to stop transfers of customs and tax revenues that are collected by the Israelis at border crossings on behalf of the Palestinians and that are a major source of funds for the Palestinian budget.
“We will face practical problems of how you deal with people that call for the destruction of Israel,” Joseph Bachar, director general of the Israeli Finance Ministry, told the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on Friday. He said a decision on the transfers would be made next week.
On the ground, it is unclear whether Israel will allow government officials from Hamas freedom to travel between the Gaza Strip and the West Bank and whether Hamas lawmakers will be permitted to pass through Israeli checkpoints to reach parliament meetings.
On the political level, there are few signs that Hamas, whose charter calls for Israel’s destruction, will be prepared to modify its longstanding refusal to recognize or negotiate with Israel, though its leaders have indicated the group would consider a truce and establishment of a Palestinian state as an interim step.
Hamas may have won the battle, but as things are currently constituted, there is simply no way they can win the war. Israel holds the cards, and Western governments the money. Remove those two items from the Palestinian picture, and what you have is a already desperately poor Palestine without hope or prospects. It’s not as if Palestine has an established industrial base or a functional economy. The “country” is heavily dependent on factors outside of it’s borders and it’s control, and if Hamas is to have any hope of making things better in Palestine, they’re going to have to learn very quickly that power in a democracy does not in fact come from the barrel of a gun. It comes from proving to their constituents that they can and will make life better for average Palestinians. Given the hard-line stance of Hamas leadership, it’s difficult to understand how they have even the faintest hope of making this happen.
Rotsa ruck….
