March 6, 2008 6:52 AM

Democrats are better than this...aren't we??

For two or three days, the Clinton campaign will spin itself — and the media — silly, breathlessly celebrating her overwhelming victories in Rhode Island and Ohio and her squeaker in Texas. But after the confetti is swept and the champagne bottles are tossed, a more sober reality will take hold. Not just that her net gain of delegates this week will be, at most, in the single digits. But worse. There is no plausible scenario in which Clinton can win the nomination. At least, not democratically.

This is the scenario that truly frightens me. What if Hillary Clinton and her supporters are so bent on victory at any cost that they’re willing to cajole, strong-arm, or just plain steal the delegates necessary to win the Democratic nomination? What if victory becomes more important than party unity? And what good is a Pyrrhic victory if it costs Democrats the White House in November? The unvarnished truth is that the reality of the mathematics is simply not on Sen. Clinton’s side. Yes, she won three out of four states contested on Tuesday (though Lord only know what the results of the Texas Caucuses will be), but it’s not as if she made a dent in the lead that Barack Obama enjoys in the all-important delegate count.

To get a sense of the difficulties the Clinton campaign faces, check out this interactive delgate counter. Even if Clinton were to win every remaining state, it’s unlikely that she’d do it by margins sufficient to surpass Obama’s delegate count. Yes, Clinton won Texas and Ohio, and there’s a good chance she’ll win Pennsylvania. By most accounts I’ve read, Clinton’s net delegate gain Tuesday was all of 12. The Texas Caucuses, which at last report were running in Obama’s favor, means that Clinton may well win the state’s popular vote and yet receive fewer delegates from Texas than Obama. Don’tcha just LOVE Democratic politics?

Where does this leave us? Well, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say without hesitation that there is no conceivable way that Hillary Clinton can win the Democratic nomination based on delegates won. That being the case, she’s left with what I’ve heard euphemistically descibred as “extra-democratic” methods. And yes, those methods are every bit as sinister as that phrase sounds.

Keep in mind that nothing official has come out of the Clinton campaign; then again, do you really think they’re going to annouce their strategy if guerrilla warfare is the path they choose? There are several scenarios I’ve heard bandied about by pundits, and they’re all plausible- if somewhat reprehensible.

First, there are the superdelegates (It’s a bird, it’s a plane, it’s…oh, never mind….), who are under no obligation to vote for a particular candidate. One would hope that the superdelegates would make their choices based on what’s best for the Democratic Party and the country, but you never know. Can some of these folks be purchased? Can they be swayed with certain, um, “inducements”? I’m not going to say that the superdelegates are corrupt or that they have their price. Nonetheless, when you have a collection of people beholden to no one and who may well ultimately decide who the next President will be (assuming, of course, a Democratic victory in November)…well, it’s a legitimate question.

There is also the matter of delegates from states like Iowa and Nevada, states with caucuses, but whose delegates are not yet officially pledged to either candidate. There is the possibility that the Clinton campaign could woo these delegates to their side.

I would imagine their are other nefarious strategies available under which Hillary Clinton could steal the nomination…and I do mean STEAL. By the end of primary season, it’s more like that not that Barack Obama will maintain his lead in the nationwide Democratic popular vote. He will almost certainly have more delegates than Clinton- so he should be declared the winner….right?? Eh, not so fast there, kimosabe….

It’s easy to fret over conspiracy theories at this point in time. There are certainly far more questions than answers, and what rushes in to fill a vacuum? My hope is that the Clinton campaign will finally recognize reality and admit that Democratic unity is far more important that personal self=aggrandizement.

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This page contains a single entry by Jack Cluth published on March 6, 2008 6:52 AM.

Better to be thought a fool than to be Marion Cotillard and remove all doubt, eh? was the previous entry in this blog.

At least with a dynasty you know what to expect is the next entry in this blog.

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