September 12, 2008 6:47 AM

"I cannot overestimate the danger that us facing us"

Houston Chronicle...Galveston Daily News...Beaumont Enterprise

KHOU- Channel 11...KTRK- Channel 13...KPRC- Channel 2...KRIV- Fox 26

City of Houston Wind Data Information

AUSTIN -- Gov. Rick Perry today urged coastal residents in Hurricane Ike's path to evacuate immediately, describing it as a storm that could swamp houses in Galveston and other areas to at least their eaves.... "My message to Texans is, in the projected impact area, finish your preparations because this is a storm that can have extraordinary impact on them, on their personal belongings," Perry said. "It's on its way."

I have no words to express the sorrow and fear I'm feeling for the Houston-Galveston area today. I may be 2500 miles away, and I may not like Houston, but I did live there for 10 years (3722 days, to be exact- not that I'm counting), and I still have friends, colleagues, and a lot of memories there. As things look now, the Houston- Galveston area appears to be Ground Zero for Hurricane Ike's projected landfall late tonight or early tomorrow morning. There is the possibility that Ike may "only" be a Category 1 (or as strong as a Category 3) hurricane by the time it makes landfall, but for an area where hurricane codes are almost an afterthought, a direct hit by even a minimal hurricane can mean significant flooding and damage to property...and perhaps even loss of life on an epic scale.

A tropical storm or a hurricane is a phenomenal and fascinating thing to watch...if you're doing so from a place where you're safe and dry. In the case of Hurricane Ike, there may not be many such places available in the Houston-Galveston area. Being that the area is a coastal plain and as flat as a three-dollar bill, there's simply nowhere for all of the water to go. Even if there was, the soil in that part of Texas is a hard, impermeable clay that absorbs very little water. If you're thinking that this is a recipe for some serious flooding, you're right. Having been in Houston when Tropical Storm Allison came through in 2001, I'm here to tell you that a good part of the Houston-Galveston area could potentially and quickly be under a great deal of water.

I spoke with my ex-wife yesterday, and the conversation didn't exactly fill me with confidence for what Ike holds in store for the Houston-Galveston. The current forecast has the storm coming literally right over the top of Seabrook and straight up the Houston Ship Channel, a worst-case scenario if ever there was one. The eight-county metropolitan area is home to some of the largest oil refineries and chemical plants in the country. While some have worried about the threat of a terrorist attack there, less emphasis has been given to the potential impact of a catastrophic weather event such as Hurricane Ike. Those of you who've never been to Houston and have never been through a hurricane should be thankful, because you have NO idea how potentially devastating a storm such as Ike can be, not only to Houston, but to our nation's economy as a whole.

Seabrook and most other coastal areas are now under a mandatory evacuation. One of my former neighbors on our little cul-de-sac is sheltering in place, as they did during Hurricane Rita. We dodged a bullet then, but can the same thing be counted on this time around? If the forecast of a 15-20' storm surge holds up, my fear is for Gene and Heather's survival. The cul-de-sac I lived on was a quarter-mile from the Gulf of Mexico, so the effects of any storm surge is not idle speculation. My former home could be easily and quickly reduced to so many matchsticks.

As you might imagine, my heart is quite heavy this morning as I fear for those I left behind in Houston. The sorrow and helplessness I'm feeling defies description. I'm thankful I'm no longer living there, but I still have friends there, and I did spend ten years of my life laong the Gulf Coast, so there's a significant emotional investment that I have in southeast Texas. I have a feeling that I'm not going to be getting much sleep tonight as I watch the news and hope for the best.

Stay tuned....

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This page contains a single entry by Jack Cluth published on September 12, 2008 6:47 AM.

If you insist on remaining this aggressively and willfully stupid, should you even be allowed to vote? was the previous entry in this blog.

'Twas the night before the Apocalypse.... is the next entry in this blog.

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