Most Seattle employers surveyed in a University of Washington-led study said in 2015 that they expected to raise prices on goods and services to compensate for the city’s move to a $15 per hour minimum wage. But a year after the law’s April 2015 implementation, the study indicates such increases don’t seem to be happening. The interdisciplinary Seattle Minimum Wage Study team, centered in the Evans School for Public Policy & Governance surveyed employers and workers and scanned area commodity and service prices. The team’s report found “little or no evidence” of price increases in Seattle relative to other areas, its report states. The City of Seattle’s $15 minimum wage ordinance was adopted in June of 2014, and began taking effect on April 1, 2015. Under the law, businesses with fewer than 500 employees will reach the $15 an hour wage in seven years, or 2021. Employers with 500 or more employees (either in Seattle or nationally) will reach that level in three years.
It’s been a Conservative article of faith for so long that it’s become accepted as fact by many on the Right…when in fact it’s little more than just another unsupported talking point. Anecdotally, it makes sense- raise the minimum wage, and of course employers will have to raise prices, which will adversely impact sales, lower prfits, and result in layoffs. Ultimately, then, raising the minimum wage is actually just about the WORST thing you could do for workers…right??
Simplistically speaking, that argument seems logical…except for when you consider that in at least one city, it appears it might just be a non-starter. Seattle has had a $15 minimum wage for almost two years, and while the law is being phased in over several years, an initial review of the impact of a higher minimum wage shows “little or no impact.”
How can this be when anyone with a shred of Conservative common sense can do the math and know that higher labor costs ipso facto can only lead to higher prices, lower profits, and inevitably to layoffs and higher unemployment? If you’re a concrete thinker, I suppose it might make sense to believe that a higher minimum wage is a bad thing for everyone. In fact- at least in Seattle- the early returns show that this hardly appears to be the case thus far.
Could it be that Conservative dogma and talking points are more solidly grounded in propaganda and disinformation than fact and reality? Perish the thought….
When approving the ordinance, the Seattle City Council also commissioned a thorough study of the law’s impacts…. The study, conducted between January and May 2015, surveyed 567 randomly selected Seattle employers as well as 55 workers, asking their awareness of and feelings about its expected and actual effects, to establish a baseline for that information.
Responses indicate that nearly all employers knew about the new law, though many were uncertain about its implementation. Many employers expressed hope the higher wages will improve both worker morale and boost job applications, though they also doubt it will improve individual employee productivity among minimum wage workers.
Sixty-two percent of employers said they expected to raise prices of goods and services to accommodate the higher wages brought by the law…. But in an analysis of area prices over time, done through a combination of “web scraping” and in-person visits to grocery stores, restaurants and other retail locations, such price increases were not in evidence.
“Our preliminary analysis of grocery, retail and rent prices has found little or no evidence of price increases in Seattle relative to the surrounding area,” the team concluded.
OK, so it’s early, and implementation of the law will not be completed until 2021. Drawing hard and fast conclusions this soon is probably not wise, but the preliminary findings seem positive. Economic realities are seldom as clear-cut as Conservatives believe them to be, but those arguing against raising the minimum wage rely on the simplistic “if A, then B” supposition to bolster their case that a higher minimum wage is bad public policy and can only create economic hardship.
The takeaway from this study is that the impact of a $15 minimum wage will probably not be as dire and/or dramatic as detractors might believe. It might just be that paying workers more may result in higher morale and higher productivity, which could effectively negate the impact of higher labor costs. Everybody wins in this scenario, and it’s entirely possible that could be the final judgment on Seattle’s $15 minimum wage.
The study conducted by the University of Washington is only a beginning in an attempt to gauge and understand the impacts of Seattle’s $15 minimum wage. It will be several years before a more complete and comprehensive understanding can be arrived at, but the early indications are positive, which is already better than the doom and gloom scenario opponents have uniformly predicted.
Another bit of good news is that the Supreme Court refused to hear a constitutional challenge to Seattle’s minimum wage law. That decision increases the chances that these sorts of laws will proliferate around the country as time passes. Soon the hills from sea to shining sea may well be alive with the sound of Conservative butthurt.
The moral of the story: accepting Conservative talking points at face value seldom leads to effective and impactful public policy. While $15 may not be the magic bullet that lifts all workers out of poverty, it’s certainly a step in the right direction. To adapt an old Conservative economic argument that Reaganites used to support supply-side economic policies (but would undoubtedly and roundly reject in this instance because it doesn’t benefit the 1%): A rising tide lifts all boats.
