WASHINGTON — A new poll has New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R) down a total of 15 points from her previous approval rating in a survey that followed her vote against requiring background checks for firearms purchases. Ayotte’s plunge underscores the changing politics around gun control and gun safety. In years past, lawmakers worried that a vote for gun control would bring the anger of the National Rifle Association. In the new reality, votes against gun control also carry a political risk, as the Ayotte poll indicates…. In October, the last time that PPP surveyed voters about Ayotte, she had a 48-35 approval rating. She has now tumbled underwater, with 46 percent disapproving and 44 percent approving. The 11-point surge in disapproval threatens Ayotte’s 2016 reelection, when she could face popular Democratic Gov. Maggie Hassan. Ayotte won her 2010 race by 23 points, but in a hypothetical matchup against Hassan trails 46-44.
It’s a bit of a “damned if you do, damned if you don’t” proposition for Congresscritters. A vote for gun control might result in a backlash from the NRA, which has been not inaccurately described as Washington’s 800-lb. gorilla. The political calculus is changing, though, and a vote AGAINST gun control may also have repercussions. The question’s become whose wishes you respect- the NRA, which probably donates significant sums of cash to your re-election campaign, or the American people, 90+% of whom support universal background checks.
Given that Ayotte is elected by the people of New Hampshire, 9 in 10 of whom support background checks, a reasonable person would have to ask why she’s still carrying the NRA’s water. People in the Granite State are beginning to ask that question, and it’s meant that Ayotte’s popularity has taken a significant hit.
This is what holding our elected representatives accountable looks like. It’ll be interesting to see what the 2014 elections bring and whether it will result in significant defeats for Congresspeople like Ayotte who voted against universal background checks. That’s a long, hard road to travel, and it’s still 18+ months away. A lot can change in that time. Ayotte is fortunate that she’s not up for re-election until 2016. Three and a half years can, politically speaking, be an eternity, so predicting Ayotte’s downfall is at the very least premature.
Still, if I had to hazard a guess, I’d be offering up the speculation that a number of Republicans who voted against universal background checks will be defeated, handily and deservedly. That should be what happens when an elected representative forgets who they’re really working for. If you’re voting AGAINST something support by more than 9 of 10 Americans, you need to reassess your priorities.
